Shell QRA - What They Will Risk

mayo | rights, freedoms and repression | opinion/analysis Friday July 08, 2005 14:57 by MNS

Shell E&P Ireland QRA makes for uneasy reading

The Quantified Risk Assessment published by Shell E&P Ireland outlines the extent to which they are willing to risk the lives of the people of Erris

Quote from Mr Andy Pyle, Managing Director of Shell E&P Ireland, on the RTÉ 9 p.m. news earlier this week:

“There is confusion, misinformation as I have said, that says this pipeline is operating at 345 bar. That is a high pressure but the pipeline is not operating at that pressure. It operates at 120 bar, which in fact gives an inherent over 2 times safety factor in the pipeline.”

Given his fondness for statistics, it is worth looking at the text below which is taken directly from the Onshore Pipeline Quantified Risk Assessment for the Corrib Field Development Project, which can be downloaded at the link to the Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources at the end of this piece. Please check it for yourselves in case you feel you are confused or being deliberately misinformed:

“The risk is highest immediately above the pipeline. Here the risks are 2.6*10-7/yr (1 in 4 million per year) for the normal operating pressure of 120 bar and 5.7*10-7/yr (1 in 2 million per year) for the maximum pressure of 345 bar.” (QRA version F, page 8)

Please correct me if I’m wrong in my interpretation of this data, as I am not an expert, but does this not imply that in a country with a population of approx. 4 million, like Ireland, that Shell E&P Ireland deem it acceptable to risk 1 life per year at the normal operating pressure, and 2 lives per year at the maximum pressure, this of course over the predicted 30-year operating life of the pipeline????!

Furthermore, the people who live in proximity to this proposed pipeline will be glad to hear that “Assessment of these hazards and ways in which the risks could be managed led to recommendations which has subsequently been incorporated into the pipeline design in order to ensure that the risks were reduced to a tolerable, or As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) level.” (QRA version F, page 14)

Is one fatality per year tolerable? I naively thought that Minister Noel Dempsey and Shell E&P Ireland would have chosen the figure of 0 fatalities to be the most “Reasonably Practicable”. Silly me!

[Please note that the figure "-7" which features twice in the citation from the QRA above should actually be superscript]