Quantitative Easing versus Austerity – which one wins?

international | anti-capitalism | opinion/analysis

Thursday November 11, 2010 23:44

by Luke Eastwood

Two very different methods are being employed to deal with continuing recession and debt, with possible dire consequences for the world economy.

The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to print an extra 600 billion dollars has sent shock waves through Europe and Asia. Meanwhile Ireland is set to slash 6 billion euro in its December budget – an attempt to reign in the national deficit. America’s quantitative easing strategy strongly conflicts with Europe’s solution to deficit (austerity) and begs the question who is making the wrong decision, who is going to emerge the winner?

Common sense tells us that if you have been overspending the best course of action is to cut back on spending until it is below income level, which then give you some chance of paying off your debts. This approach is advocated in Europe and the Irish government is taking this route, albeit too little too late. Underestimating the extent of the shortfall has culminated in a likely tax and cuts bloodbath on December 7th, which could possibly have been avoided if the Irish government had acted more decisively earlier on to stop the rot.

The American solution of more borrowing and more QE is clearly madness, however as the largest market in the world, their decisions have repercussions for the world economy, especially as the dollar (for now) remains the world’s reserve currency. In effect the US fiscal approach is like a person in the back of a boat drilling holes while everyone else is busy bailing out the water with buckets! Unfortunately, not only is US policy making a bad situation worse but they also seem determined to undermine other nations’ attempt to solve the problem any other way. The US based ratings agencies (such as Standards & Poor and Moodys) clearly unfairly favour the USA which retains its AAA rating despite the fact that America is really bankrupt. Conversely both Greece and Iceland have been consistently downgraded (making further borrowing expensive) despite the fact that they are in arguably better or no worse shape than America.

If the US economy and the dollar collapse completely it will undoubtedly be due to a final acknowledgement of the failure to reverse decades of living on credit. The Emperor has had no clothes for quite some time but it has taken a long time for the world to notice that without hyperinflation America has no hope of ever repaying its debts. If US institutions were considered ‘too big to fail’ then how much more is the whole US economy a liability that could drag the whole global financial system with it?

If Europe, China and India were to disengage from America it would accelerate the US decline, but it might just prevent a systemic failure that affects everyone. If the rest of the World continues to lend to and trade heavily with America then it is almost guaranteed that there will eventually be a default or dollar collapse – either of which could ruin economies all over the world and cripple even the Chinese economy.

So long as the US Fed keeps belching out money and the US government keeps borrowing and spending like crazy there is not much Ireland (or any country) can do to prevent a disaster – all that can be done is to try to get one’s own house in order before the whole house of cards comes crashing down. Devaluing the dollar may make American goods cheaper but since most of the export market has already gone it will make little difference and only encourage a mass exodus. As more countries, corporates and individual investors become aware of the truly crushing American debt and deteriorating infrastructure the acceleration towards a US collapse can only increase. If a collapse happens any time soon then European austerity measures will seem trifling as everyone will lose – there are no winners in a race to the bottom.

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Comments (3 of 3)

I believe it was Will Rogers said...

by opus diablos - the regressive hypocrite party

Fri Nov 12, 2010 15:36

' If stupidy got us into this mess, then why can't it get us out ?'.

Looks more and more like a re-run of Weimar economics; beggar ALL your fucking neighbours cos your falling off your high horse and you can't stand to see any replacement (China now, Paris/London/Washington then).

History indicates they wont wake up till they pull the house down again. But maybe thats whats needed before we reform our whole valuation system.
The current accounting is founded on centuries of theft, bloodshed, swindle, war, dog-eat-dog competition.Maybe we can't evolve past our canine/simian instinctual-competitive animality and recognise co-operation as a healthier foundation for a more social commerce till we've exhausted the bucket of bestiality altogether. They aint learnin, and it gets more blatantly obvious by the bulletin. Them squirrels want everybody's fucking nuts in their vaults.

Globalised Haiti, anyone?

Bolivian Way To Go

by Jerry Cornelius

Fri Nov 12, 2010 15:51

You don't have to roll over and accept cuts! Fight back! In Bolivia private companies are being seized. Taking back their natural resources! Now why won't Labour ask for such a mandate from the electorate? The SP and other independents will. But will the PBPA put forward Socialist demands?

Bolivia defends seizing foreign energy firms

Bolivia's government has defended its policy of nationalising companies that it says are vital to the economy. Businesses in the energy sector have been seized by President Evo Morales's left-wing administration.

It follows a trend started by Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez, who has called on all Latin American nations to follow his lead. Bolivia's government has said it is redistributing oil and gas wealth to the country's indigenous population.

In May 2010, four electricity firms, which between them account for more than half of Bolivia's electricity market, were expropriated.

"We're just fulfilling the promise we made when we were elected, to recover all these areas that were in the hands of the state before these privatisations", Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera told the BBC World Service.

by degrees, JC...

Fri Nov 12, 2010 16:38

It has taken Latin America a while to get a grip, and they had the Chicago Boys imposing the IMF formula for a while before they got the current set of experiments together. Once Bolivar(2 centuries back) elbowed Spain out, the gringo gardener up north, with considerable assistance from Britannia and other European vampires, kept the arsito landlords under their thumbs, despite intermittent attempts at autonomy. The Euro fringe is still dazed and confused and unaccustomed to challenging its benevolent masters who have maintained them on the crumbs of global pillaging down the centuries. Too many people think this is going to be solved by breaking a few windows. The roots are deep. If it is suddenly up-ended, be very wary of what replaces the status quo.

But I agree that Latin America over the last half-century is the place to look for lessons as to what is going on here at the minute. I'm not sure you realise just how conservative(and thoroughly indoctrinated)Paddy is though. Look at the continuing deference to the Rome. I would suggest a ten-year rather than a ten day forward planning scope.
We cant move here till conditions are ripe in the US and in other continental countries. But dont forget there will be external vultures as ready to scavange on the mess as were Washington and the other imperial centres when Bolivar booted Spain out.
We move unilaterally and we get the Castro treatment. The Irish people are not yet ready, they are still horrified and transfixed by the sand running through their fingers and the prospects for themselves and their kids. And as the current Phoenix cover puts it, we '..aint seen nothing yet ! '.
Somebody else said ' When all else fails to organise the people, circumstances will'.As the girl guide said, bi ullaimh.

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Quantitative Easing versus Austerity – which one wins?

Comments (3 of 3)