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Saturday May 07, 2016 19:38
by Shell to Sea - Shell to Sea
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Comments (3 of 3)
Jump To Comment: 1 2 3I can't help but point out that the campaign is not getting any smarter as the years go by. The calculation that the Corrib field will make $7.35 billion over the next 20 years is based on the fact that the field will be producing exactly the same amount of gas in twenty years time as it did in the first three months of production! Sadly this is not the case as production declines year by year to a mere trickle at the end of field life. If it were producing at the same rate in 20 years time as it is today I sure the whole of Ireland would rejoice in the benefits of the additional tax revenue.
That isn't the gas. A conventional gas field like Corrib has ramps up quickly to a fairly long plateau and has relatively constant production and only towards the end does production drop off significantly.
In the case of unconventional gas fields like Fracking, production rises rapidly in the first year to 18 months and then falls off exponentially to a trickle. This sounds like the case you are describing and is not applicable to Corrib.
I'm afraid that the statement in the previous comment is entirely incorrect on many levels. Corrib like many gas fields will have a relatively short plateau followed by a long and fairly steep decline. Take a look at the independent publicly available analysis such as that published by Wood Mackenzie if you don't believe me. The idea that it will produce for the next 20 years at the same rate is just ludicrous.