War in Iran? Civil unrest in Europe?

international | anti-war / imperialism | opinion/analysis

Wednesday July 02, 2008 16:51

by dunk

fuspey at yahoo dot co dot uk

A worrying amount of reports are coming in about the possibility of a new front in the ongoing “war on terror”. The chances of an attack on Iran, who have never attacked anyone outside of its borders for 280 years now, is being increasingly talked about. But who might lead this attack and in what way might such an act further destabilise the world, both externally in the Middle East but also here at home in Europe and the “civilized world”? Bush, Obama or maybe Israel? And who might follow? Sarkozy, Burlesconi, Brown, maybe even Poland, maybe even all of Europe?

No War On Iran

Democracy Now reported on June 23rd:

The New York Times reported Friday that Israel recently carried out a major military exercise that Pentagon officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighter planes took part in the manoeuvres over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece.

If war does break out, what will be the global reaction? If it does happen it is rumoured to be within the next half year, during which time we will see Nicholas Sarkozy become head of the European Union. Surely such an offensive will be quickly supported by France under Sarkozy, with Italy and Britain sure to quickly roll in behind. A more worrying aspect, in relation to Ireland, is that Sarkozy is trying to push on with full ratification of the Lisbon Treaty after its rejection by the Irish public last month, if he is successful might we see Irish troops being pulled into this new war through exactly the things the Irish public voted no against: a less democratic and more militaristic Europe?

Ironically enough, with France soon to be the temporary centre of Europe, and with the social, political climate similar to what it was 40 years ago, might such an outbreak of militarism and war lead to a repeat of the civil unrest that seemed to explode out of nowhere back then, firstly on the streets of France and soon to many corners of the globe? The seeds are already there after 2005’s civil unrest in France, where from Clichy-sous-Bois we saw riots when young people burned 1000 cars in 20 days as well as many public buildings.

Former US Senator Mike Gravel, who is calling for Independent 9/11 Investigation and Prosecution of President Bush and Vice President Cheney over the ongoing war in Iraq, recently said how:

I was with Ramsey Clark over the weekend, and Ramsey joins me in feeling very, very frightened over the possibility that George Bush may go crazy again and do something significant between now and the term. Remember when Sarkozy asked him, “Well, Mr. President, you’ve did a—you know, you’ve done a fine term of office.” He said, “I’m not done yet!” Well, by “not done,” what’s he got in his mind? What more could he do?

The present US political mechanism is such that even if Bush, as commander and chief of US military forces, gives the nod for war only days before his end of term of office there can be no stopping the onslaught.

This is the same George Bush who believes he is waging a religious crusade, receiving his directives from God through his bible belt preachers; the new great battle between good and evil, or the Christian world verses the heretical Muslim world, he’s the man who recently said “I don’t care what people think about me. I gonna do the right thing.”

Pulitzer prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh, in a piece in the New Yorker magazine called “Preparing the battlefield: the Bush adminstration steps up its secret moves against Iran.” Has found out more somewhat “classified” information that indeed the lead up to war is well underway, from Democracy Now:
Congress Agreed to Bush Request to Fund Major Escalation in Secret Operations Against Iran:

Congressional leaders agreed to a request from President Bush last year to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran aimed at destabilizing Iran’s leadership…The operations were set out in a highly classified Presidential Finding signed by Bush which, by law, must be made known to Democratic and Republican leaders. The plan allowed up to $400 million in covert spending for activities ranging from supporting dissident groups to spying on Iran’s nuclear program.

But if Bush doesn’t lead the attack, might it actually be more worrying if Barack Obama wins the Whitehouse race, which it seems he is set to do with all his talk of “hope” and “change”, and from there be the one who makes the call. He has given hope to millions in the US: the first black man as head of the country, which surely is a good thing since we see the change since the apartheid days of not too long ago. But what if all those young kids in the US really fall for his words, are woed by his pulpit like presentations and from that buy into the calls for US defense by invasion of Iran. It would almost be if the behind the scenes US policy makers are using Bush and Obama as bad cop, good cop…

Barack Obama’s response to Iran, reported recently on Democracy Now:

We will also use all elements of American power to pressure Iran. I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Everything..

(To listen to it delivered in his almost Martin Luther King like tones, makes it even more scary)

But like Iraq, before the illegal war began there, all the facts are pointing to the fact that there is no need for attack. There was no threat then, WMD’s turned out to be a big lie, US are still bringing in the oil, and there is no threat now, as alternative hopeful runner for presidency for the US, Ralph Nader states in relation to all this:

Bush is more likely, before he leaves office. The point is that we are exaggerating that threat instead of using diplomacy, number one. Number two, Iran does not have nuclear weapons; they’re nowhere near nuclear weapons, according to intelligence estimates. Number three, Israel has 250 nuclear weapons. Does Iran really want to commit suicide? And number four, two major national security experts in Israel have been reported as saying Iran is not a problem. So why are we beating the drums, and why is Obama falling for this kind of trap?

If war in Iran does breaks out, what will be the reaction in the West? Will we see repeats of F15, the largest mobilisation of people in a single action in the entirety of our recorded history of civilisation, which failed in its request for “no war in Iraq”, or will we see more anger, more unrest, more action to break up the war machine? Some of that fire that enflames Paris and beyond 40 years ago?

The February 15, 2003 anti-war protest was a coordinated day of protests across the world against the imminent invasion of Iraq. Millions of people protested in approximately 800 cities around the world. According to BBC News, between six and ten million people took part in protests in up to sixty countries over the weekend of the 15th and 16th; other estimates range from eight million to thirty million.

As successful Ploughshare activist Ciaron O'Reilly, who succeeded in a direct action at Shannon Airport, put it in a march in London to mark that famous day:
“After Yet Another March - What is Relevant Anti-War Activity 5 Years In?”

The recent film put film put together by IMC-IE’s Eamonn Crudden “Route Irish” captured both the short lived hope in Ireland that her people could change the government policy of allowing Shannon airport to be used as an integral part of the international “war on terror”, but more so the fizzling of that hope due to internal bickering between anti war groups, the argument of protest versus action. If this war does indeed erupt in Iran, what lessons can be learned from the resistance to war in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Bush’s course of office will soon come to an end, what will happen to him and his crew of war mongerers after? Renowned US Attorney Vincent Bugliosi Seeks “The Prosecution of George W. Bush for Murder”, Vincent Bugliosi states:

Well, in my book, The Prosecution of George W. Bush for Murder, I set forth an airtight legal case against George Bush that proves beyond all reasonable doubt that George Bush took this nation to war under false pretenses, on a lie, in Iraq, and therefore, under the law, he is guilty of murder for the deaths of over 4,000 young American soldiers in Iraq fighting his war, not your war or my war or America’s war, but his war.

Others are harsher as to the depth of damage done by Bush during his two terms of office and what should happen to this Rogue; as 2 famous and celebrtated US authors comment on Democracy Now:

Veteran Journalist Robert Scheer on “The Pornography of Power: How Defense Hawks Hijacked 9/11 and Weakened America”:

You either have a republic, in which people have control, or you have the empire. And what Jefferson and Washington up through Eisenhower and McGovern warned us against is the empire. If you have an empire, the people cannot have the basic information, they will be lied to, they will be deceived. You know, that’s what the weapons of mass destruction and everything. And the reason that Washington in his farewell address, that Eisenhower in his farewell address, warned us about empire is they knew it was incompatible with democracy.

Yes, if we’re on a local level, I’ve written locally, local columns. If I say you should have a traffic light there or close that school there or the police are corrupt, people can get the information. They know what you’re talking about when it’s kept local. When you have an empire, you don’t get that information for what? Twenty, thirty, forty years, if ever. They can lie to you with impunity. People have no basis of challenging them. So what we’re really talking about is, if we are wedded to an imperial model, if we are wedded to a permanent war economy, to permanent expansion, you can forget democracy.

And finally, cousin of nearly eleced US president Al Gore, legendary author Gore Vidal on the Bush Presidency, History and the “United States of Amnesia”:

“You can see little Bush all along was just dreaming of war, and also Cheney dreaming about oil wells and how you knock apart a country like Iraq and of course their oil will pay for the damage you do. For that alone, he should have been put in front of a firing squad.”

Related links:

Democracy Now:

Is Israel Preparing to Bomb Iran?
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/6/23/is_israel_prepari..._iran

Hersh: Congress Agreed to Bush Request to Fund Major Escalation in Secret Operations Against Iran
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/6/30/hersh_congress_ag...quest

Bush continues to plan for war with Iran
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYsjgJUKfdQ

Ralph Nader on Barack Obama: “It is Quite Clear He is a Corporate Candidate from A to Z”
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/6/18/ralph_nader_on_ba...ma_it

Former Senator Mike Gravel Calls for Independent 9/11 Investigation and Prosecution of President Bush and Vice President Cheney
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/6/17/former_senator_mi...s_for

1968, Forty Years Later: Tariq Ali Looks Back on a Pivotal Year in the Global Struggle for Social Justice
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/5/29/1968_40_years_lat...q_ali

1968, 40 Years Later: Student, Worker Protests Sweep France, Leaving Indelible Mark on the Country and the World
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/5/14/1968_40_years_lat...orker

Citing Iraq War, Renowned Attorney Vincent Bugliosi Seeks “The Prosecution of George W. Bush for Murder”
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/6/13/citing_iraq_war_r...ncent

Veteran Journalist Robert Scheer on “The Pornography of Power: How Defense Hawks Hijacked 9/11 and Weakened America”
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/5/30/veteran_journalis...n_the
Scheers website: http://truthdig.com./

Legendary Author Gore Vidal on the Bush Presidency, History and the “United States of Amnesia”
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/5/14/legendary_author_...n_the

Wider context:

Sarkozy, Lisbon Treaty and desire for ratification despite Irish vote NO
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0630/eulisbon.html

2005 civil unrest in France
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_civil_unrest_in_France

La Haine Est Dans La Rue
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/72841

February 15, 2003 anti-war protest
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_15,_2003_anti-war...otest

Ciaron O'Reilly: After Yet Another March - What is Relevant Anti-War Activity 5 Years In?
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/86738

BitTorrent Now Available: 'Route Irish' Documentary - Come and Seed
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/85188

Mai ’68:

40 years ago this month in Paris….Mai 68
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/87672

Where has all the rage gone?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/22/vietnamwar

Iran:
International Alliance in Support of Workers in Iran (IASWI)
http://www.workers-iran.org/

If you like war in Iraq, Youll love war in Iran : US people call for communication and no war

If war starts in Iran, what level of rage will erupt in Europe?

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Comments (18 of 18)

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gunboats and patterns

by opus diablos - the regressive hypocrite party

Sun Feb 05, 2012 11:47

and the repetitions of spiralling histrionix

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28973

The power of modern thermonuclear weapons, warnings going completely unheeded?

by W. Finnerty

Fri Feb 03, 2012 12:56

"Do you know what thermonuclear weapons mean? Do you realize that what's going on in the Middle East, so-called, cannot be waged by anything other than nuclear weapons? This also means thermonuclear weapons?

"A modern thermonuclear weapon weighing little more than 2,400 pounds (1,100 kg) can produce an explosive force comparable to the detonation of more than 1.2 million tons (1.1 million tonnes) of TNT. Thus, even a small nuclear device no larger than traditional bombs can devastate an entire city by blast, fire and radiation." (Excerpt from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon)

For future reference purposes, a rich-text version of the original of the associated e-mail sent to members of the Irish Legal Professions, and several other people besides, and which contained the above information, can be viewed at the following Internet location:
http://www.humanrightsireland.com/IrishLegalProfessions...l.htm

stoking the fires..

Fri Feb 03, 2012 12:31

..in Syria.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/indexphp?context=va&aid=29025

This week we see a worrying escalation of the threat of war on Iran...

by Dunk

Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:41

July 2008 was when this article was first written. The world now seems quite a different place:

That was Before the "financial meltdown", before the economic crisis in europe, before the near civil war in Greece, before the riots (all of them) in the UK, before Tahrir and the "Arab Spring", before the "Spanish Revolution", before the #OCCUPY movement, before 2011 - the "year of indignation"...

This week we see a worrying escalation of the threat of war on Iran...

Panetta believes Israel may strike Iran this spring: reports
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/03/us-nuclear-ir...20203

(Reuters) - Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believes there is a growing possibility Israel will attack Iran as early as April to stop Tehran from building a nuclear bomb, U.S. media reported on Thursday.

The Washington Post first reported that Panetta was concerned about the increased likelihood Israel would launch an attack over the next few months. CNN said it confirmed the report, citing a senior Obama administration official, who declined to be identified.

"Panetta believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June - before Iran enters what Israelis described as a 'zone of immunity' to commence building a nuclear bomb," Washington Post columnist David Ignatius wrote.

"Very soon, the Israelis fear, the Iranians will have stored enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon - and only the United States could then stop them militarily," Ignatius wrote.

Iran able to make four atom bombs, says Israeli official
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0203/122....html

...while warning “all options remain on the table”, which is understood to infer that Israel will, if it deems necessary to protect itself, take pre-emptive action to stop Iran developing actual weapons.

Israel defence minister warns it may soon be too late for Iran military strike
- Ehud Barak says Tehran's nuclear programme is slowly reaching 'immunity stage' when no armed intervention could stop it
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/02/iran-israel...trike

He told an international conference in Herzliya, Israel, on Thursday: "The world today has no doubt that the Iranian military nuclear programme is slowly but surely reaching the final stages and will enter the immunity stage, from which point the Iranian regime will be able to complete the programme without any effective intervention and at its convenience."

At that point it would be impractical to attack, he said.

"Dealing with a nuclearised Iran will be far more complex, far more dangerous and far more costly in blood and money than stopping it today. In other words, those who say 'later' may find that later is too late," Barak said.

- Will Israel Attack Iran? (Jan 29)
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/magazine/will-israel-....html

- US: Edging closer towards war with Iran?
The biggest problem for the US is not Iran getting a nuclear weapon and testing it, but getting it and not using it.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/12/201112....html

- Operation Iraqi Liberation (O.I.L) - David Rovics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwKvR9mbYH0

intel services direct Young into unjust wars

by geral - human rights

Thu Jan 19, 2012 18:40

gsosbee at gmail dot com

The cia directs our young, brave men and women into useless battles and unjust wars, while the fbi threatens, arrests, imprisons, tortures and kills the soldier/citizen (whether decorated or fatigued) upon return home. Thus, no wonder *West Point and other military academies frequent my reports in search of an answer to this question, "Who will follow us into the next battle"?

http://www.opednews.com/articles/US-Army-Lies-To-Our-Yo....html

http://www.sosbeevfbi.com/geralsosbeearmyf.html

http://www.sosbeevfbi.com/tooth14.html

http://www.sosbeevfbi.com/part16-updatefor.html

http://www.sosbeevfbi.com/hightechassau.html

http://barbarahartwellvscia.blogspot.com/2011/10/courts....html

http://barbarahartwell.blogspot.com/2007/08/new-reports....html

http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2012/01/413458.shtml

http://www.sosbeevfbi.com/part4-worldinabo.html

*
GERAL W. SOSBEE vs. fbi
By Location > Visit Detail
Visit 111,210
IP Address
134.240.14.# (United States Military Academy)
ISP
United States Military Academy
State
New York
City
West Point
Jan 18 2012 10:49:26 am
Last Page View
Jan 18 2012 10:49:26 am
http://www.sosbeevfbi.com/
Visit Exit Page
http://www.sosbeevfbi.com/

No war in Iran

Wed Nov 09, 2011 16:36

3 years on from when this article was written, still no war, thankfully, in Iran... but in last few days theres been a lot more talk about a possible invasion, it all sounds like the lead up days to the war in Iran :-(

Israel, US & UK Beat The Drums Of War As They Threaten Iran

http://www.indymedia.ie/article/100853

Iran test-fires missiles, sanctions, blogs, Sarko and Ireland....

Mon Jul 14, 2008 20:29

- Iran test-fires missiles with possibility of hitting Israel
- EU agrees new Iran sanctions
- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad interview (some months back)
- Iranian blogs
- Imc-ie articles regarding possible attack on Iran
- Sarkozy is not welcome in Ireland

- Iran test-fires missiles with possibility of hitting Israel
Iran announced on Wednesday it had test-fired nine missiles, including one it said was capable of reaching Israel.
Iran missile test 'provocative'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7498214.stm

US urges Iran to halt missile tests
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0710/iran.html

Iran carries out second missile test (Friday, July 11, 2008)
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2008/0711/121....html
IRAN: THE US vowed to defend Israel and its other allies in the Gulf, as Iran carried out its second missile test in two days yesterday.

As the situation worsened in the Gulf, French oil company Total said it would pull out of a large-scale investment in an Iranian gas field - a serious blow to Tehran, which is keen to exploit its gas reserves, and a victory for the Bush administration, which has been seeking to isolate the Iranian government.

- EU agrees new Iran sanctions

The EU has agreed a new round of sanctions against Iran over its refusal to meet international demands to curb its nuclear programme.
The most notable measure will stop Iran's largest bank, Bank Melli, from operating in Europe. Its operations in London, Hamburg and Paris will be stopped.
The sanctions were approved during a meeting of EU agriculture and fisheries ministers in Luxembourg.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0623/iran.html

- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad interview
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran interview with Jon Snow on UK TV channel 4 some months back:

"President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran speaking in a live interview on UK TV channel 4. Jon Snow, a great Interviewer, got him talking a hell of a lot. I am not supporting or criticising here I am just offering the video in FULL as I see people selecting sound-bytes from it and sensationalising it unfairly. He said some crap but he did also say some good things. Now you can see it all and make your own mind up! "

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0n2opmkvqc

- Iranian blogs
From IMC-ORG: A directory of English blogs written by Iranians around the world: http://blogsbyiranians.com/
and Campaign Iran, Working for International Dialogue and Peace: http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/

- Imc-ie articles regarding possible attack on Iran
More Signs Of Israeli-US Preparations For Attacking Iran (June 29 by pat c)
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/88165
Bush gives Israel the “amber light” for an attack on Iran’s main nuclear sites (July 13 by tomeile)
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/88342
recent posts relating to many Iran issues from Pat C
http://www.indymedia.ie/openwire?search_text=pat+c

- Sarkozy is not welcome in Ireland
- http://www.indymedia.ie/article/88191
- CAEUC : Campaign Against the EU Constitution / Vote No to the Lisbon Treaty
http://www.caeuc.org/
- Irish Times: Anti-Lisbon groups plan to protest during Sarkozy's visit

OPPOSITION TO a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty was expressed yesterday by a coalition of left-wing campaign groups, which also announced plans to protest during French president Nicolas Sarkozy’s Irish visit this month.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/0701/1....html

There has been not to much response on whether Sarko wants to or might be able to change the EU framework even with the Irish NO, or if it did happen and a crisis emerges which leads to war in Iran with "Europes" support, what kind of reaction might we expect in the different countries that presently make up EU.

Iran test-fires missiles with possibility of hitting Israel

Iran missile range

Next action

by cropbeye

Sun Jul 06, 2008 17:11

Cork (Northside)

It would seem that a good area for developing the struggle

taking into account the result of the Lisbon referendum

could be at the European Social Forun in Sweden in the autumn.

It would be advisable for a strong number of Irish activists to

attend and contribute their analysis.

Aplogies, I left out the link for one of the above, here it is

Sat Jul 05, 2008 17:31

Noam Chomsky on U.S. Policy Towards Iran, with Video and Transcript
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18772.htm

and more important news from http://therealnews.com/t/

Chomskys on Iran attack + Corelli Barnett: "attack on Iran would effectively launch World War III."

Sat Jul 05, 2008 17:25

Some of the recent discussions Noam Chomsky has been having about a possible attack in Iran
http://www.chomsky.info/index.htm
___________________________________________________________________________

vids on Youtube

Noam Chomsky on Iran 4/29/2007 at MIT Part 1/7
http://es.youtube.com/watch?v=pwsUeMfi9jw

Noam Chomsky on pre-emptive attacks in iran
http://es.youtube.com/watch?v=JqOF74yd46o

Noam Chomsky on Iran / Nov 2007
Chomsky talks about the latest IAEA report in November 2007 on Iran's atomic energy issues.
http://es.youtube.com/watch?v=nRWX53-Ofqc

Chomsky: Do the Democrats have a different answer on Iran?
http://es.youtube.com/watch?v=uX3sXCgAQUk
___________________________________________________________________________

Noam Chomsky on U.S. Policy Towards Iran
Noam Chomsky interviewed by Paul Jay
November 19, 2007

JAY: Do you think we're actually moving towards a military confrontation? Or are we seeing a game of brinksmanship?
CHOMSKY: Well, whether purposely or not, yes, we're moving towards a military confrontation.
___________________________________________________________________________

How to Stop a Showdown With Iran
The Nation
April 5, 2007
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070423/chomsky

British military historian Corelli Barnett speaks for many when he warns that "an attack on Iran would effectively launch World War III."

___________________________________________________________________________

Iran: it's not about energy
March 9, 2007
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2007/mar/09/cho...nergy

Noam Chomsky argues that saber-rattling with Iran is all about oil. But such arguments are nothing more than useful idiocy for the warmongers.
___________________________________________________________________________

On Iran, Iraq, and the Rest of the World
Noam Chomsky interviewed by Michael Shank
February 16, 2007
http://www.chomsky.info/interviews/20070216.htm

Shank: So when the United States considers a potential invasion you think it’s under the premise of gaining control? That is what the United States will gain from attacking Iran?

Chomsky: There are several issues in the case of Iran. One is simply that it is independent and independence is not tolerated. Sometimes it’s called successful defiance in the internal record.

it’s not only that it has substantial resources and that it’s part of the world’s major energy system but it also defied the United States...
And the United States immediately turned to supporting Saddam Hussein and his war against Iran as a way of punishing Iran. The United States is going to continue to punish Iran because of its defiance. So that’s a separate factor.

Seventy five percent of the population here favors improving relations with Iran, instead of threats. But this is disregarded. We don’t have polls from the business world, but it’s pretty clear that the energy corporations would be quite happy to be given authorization to go back into Iran instead of leaving all that to their rivals. But the state won’t allow it. And it is setting up confrontations right now, very explicitly. Part of the reason is strategic, geo-political, economic, but part of the reason is the mafia complex. They have to be punished for disobeying us.
___________________________________________________________________________

Iran Promises to Strike back

by Bazooka Joe

Sat Jul 05, 2008 14:00

Iran promises to respond to an attack by showering missiles on Israel and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Israel and the US agree this is the most likely response. This would see an immediate oil shortage and a rocketing of oil prices.

Israel would be especially badly hurt by both a direct Iranian attack but also by Hizbollah and possibly Syria and a resurgence of attacks from Hamas and Fatah.

Iran is presently seeking the SA 20 air-defence system from Russia, which would make an attack on it more difficult.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/str....html

and after...?

Sat Jul 05, 2008 10:54

granted, we know how big an army could be used against Iran, if it goes to that. The important questions are whether it will get to that and also if it happens, followed by whats outined above, what will happen, how will Ireland react if Shannon is used?

What will Sarko and crew do?

todays headlines from http://antiwar.com/ :

Official: Attack on Iran Would Destabilize Iraq
Iraqi Shi'ites Denounce Security Pact With US
Shi'ite Clergy Want Referendum Over US Troop Presence
Contractors Oppose Move to End Immunity From Iraqi Law

Strike and We'll Strike You Back, Warns Iran
Iran Responds to World Powers' Nuclear Offer

and from democracy now: http://www.democracynow.org/2008/7/3/headlines#4

Amidst Progress on Nuke Talks, Bush Restates Iran Threat
President Bush has again renewed a longstanding threat to attack Iran. On Wednesday, Bush said “all options are on the table” to confront Iran over its nuclear program.

President Bush: “I have always said that all options are on the table, but the first option for the United States is to solve this problem diplomatically. I’ve also made it clear that you can’t solve a problem diplomatically unless
there are other people at the table with you, and that is why we have been pursuing multilateral diplomacy when it comes to convincing the Iranians that the free world is sincere about, you know, insisting that they not have
the technologies necessary to develop a nuclear weapon, and we’re making progress along those lines."

Critics have accused Bush and other top US politicians of violating the UN Charter barring the threat of force against other states. Bush’s comments come one day after Iran appeared to welcome a new breakthrough in ongoing talks. On Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Iran is seriously considering a new offer from the US and five other countries that he called “constructive.”

We wait and see...

We are going to be witnesses to a big light show with bells and whistles

by Realist

Fri Jul 04, 2008 17:16

Usually one or two or more US Navy carrier strike forces were historically involved in large scale air strikes such as Desert Storm or Operation Iraqi Freedom. Each of these forces is built around one of the 11 aircraft carriers in the US Navy arsenal. Each carrier has squadrons of the following fixed wing aircraft:
Three Strike Fighter Squadrons (VFA) of F/A-18 Hornets
One additional Marine Fighter Attack Squadron of F/A-18 Hornets provided by the U.S. Marine Corps (VMFA)
One Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) of EA-6B Prowlers
One Sea Control Squadron (VS) of S-3B Vikings.
The Hornet and Super Hornets are the workhorses of the US Navy and are considered superior to the majority of contemporary European, Russian and Chinese designs.

The USAF operates numerous air bases in the Middle East region and a fleet of F-15, F-16 and the newer stealth F-22 and F-35 fighter aircraft that are unequalled by other air forces.

The B-1 Lancer and the B-2 Spirit bombers are superior long range bombers and will probably used to hit Iranian nuclear facilities.
And the legendary B-52 Strato-fortress is still in operation until at least 2040 for devastating bombing raids.

Potentially hundreds of aircraft are at American disposal more than enough to handle both air-to-air and ground-to-air threats from Iranian forces.

The Israeli Defence Forces have the following inventory of ultra-modern US manufactured strike aircraft:

76 F-15 twin-seat fighter/bombers, 20 of which are in storage.

332 F-16 single-engine fighter/bombers.

The air-to-air capability, electronics, avionics and navigation systems of US and Israeli planes are at the cutting edge of modern military technology.

Meanwhile Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force possess more than 300 military aircraft with a theoretical fighter interceptor capability but due to their age/obsolescence this mixture of elderly and less advanced aircraft piloted by conscripts (who have received some instruction from Russian and Chinese pilots) are likely to be unreliable at the very least in an air-to-air duel with the elite USAF or IDF air forces:

24 F-7’s based on an obsolete Soviet era MiG-21 single engine fighter design.

24 French manufactured Mirage F1’s twin engine fighters flown over from Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War.

79 obsolete US manufactured F-14 twin engine Tomcat’s – pre-dating the 1979 revolution, 59 are still operational.

6 to 36 HESA Azarakhsh’s based on US manufactured the obsolete US manufactured Northrop F-5 twin engine fighter.

3 HESA Saeqeh’s, a second generation of the Azarakish fighter.

1 HESA Shafaq’s a prototype developed from the Yakovlev Yak-130 Russian trainer jet.

47 obsolete US manufactured F-4 Phantom twin engine fighters. Like the F-14 Tomcat these aircraft pre-date the 1979 revolution.

40 MiG 27 twin-engine fighters, Soviet-era design with Russian and Indian upgrades.

75 F-5 Northrop twin-engine fighters. Obsolete design pre-dating 1979.

12-13 Sukhoi Su-25 twin engine fighter. Sourced from Russia or impounded during the Iran-Iraq and Gulf Wars.

Also the avionics, navigation and air-to-air weapons systems of these planes are Iranian manufacture and vastly inferior to US and Israeli designs.

Most if not all Iranian aircraft that would take to the skies to meet an US.Israeli air strike would probably be shot out of the sky or destroyed on the ground with low US and Israeli losses.

The bombardment of Iran nuclear facilities would probably be accompanied by american and israel commando assaults to finished their destruction from across the Iraqi border. Hundreds of these elite troops would wipe out poorly trained Iranian conscript units ten or twenty times their size if they are accompanied by close air support.

The highest casualties among Israeli and American forces would be among these units.

An Iranian counter strike with missiles against Iraq or Israel is unlikely to have much effect on US or Israeli forces because both countries have invested heavily in the hugely successful Patriot missile that can engage tactical ballistic missiles.

Iranian naval ships are out numbered and out gunned against US carrier aircraft, missile cruisers and destroyers and nuclear submarines and would be destroyed by air strikes on their port or sunk at sea.

If Iranian ground forces attempt to cross the Iraqi border to strike at the US Army and Marine Corps with their Russian Soviet era tanks and armoured personnel carriers and the Iranian manufactured Zulfiqar main battle tank are no match for the Abrams and Bradley's of American armoured units and will be badly mauled especially by A-10 Warthog ground attack jets and Apache helicopter gunships.

The only factor in Iran's favour is their ability to field potentially millions of conscripts armed with Kalashnikov rifles that could be thrown over the border in human wave attacks.

However such tactics would be suicidal and countless Iranian soldiers would perish under overwhelming bombardment with cluster bombs, daisy-cutters, napalm, white phosphorous and high explosives.

If Iran does possess a nuclear weapon and decides to use, a single airburst over Tel Aviv would level the entire city and shower Israel and Palestine with fallout, potentially killing hundreds of thousands of people.

The massive US and Israeli nuclear counter strike would flatten every major urban area in iran killing millions of its citizens within a matter of minutes.

World oil prices record hi, use of NVDA + audio file from 70's Irish oil shortage : solution = C2C

Fri Jul 04, 2008 15:51

- World oil prices record hi
- Further calls for Iran attack
- Non violent and creative resistance against a world of more war
- Soultion to oil dependance: sustainable living C2C, cradle to cradle design

- World oil prices record hi

Yesterday it was reported on RTE that:

$250 forecast as oil hits a new peak:
The price of oil set a record high above $146 a barrel earlier today, with traders blaming falling reserves of US crude, tensions over Iran and a weak US dollar. Meanwhile, Russian energy giant Gazprom forecast that oil would 'very soon' hit $250 a barrel.

On Democracy Now, Arun Gupta, an editor of The Indypendent who has written extensively on the political economy of the global oil order, in a recent discussion outlined how there is oil, much of it is in Iran:

The important thing, there are not these absolute natural limits. These have to do with relations of production. There’s a lot of cheap, easy oil out there. We have to remember that it is locked up in Iran and Iraq because of U.S. foreign policy. Both these countries could be massive producers.

He was talking with Michael Klare, author of 13 books, including “Blood and Oil”, “Resource Wars.” and “Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet" whos response was:

My basic thesis that the supply of oil is increasingly inadequate to satisfy the needs of the rising powers, and the older powers, I think is correct. It is in this environment of tight supplies that any crisis that emerges, the fighting in Nigeria, the fighting in Iraq, the possibility of a hurricane season that is upon us, and the possibility, more than anything else, of a U.S. Strike on Iran, which I think is more than 50% likely—that is what is fueling this speculative frenzy that everyone has been speaking about. The speculators believe that more crises, more chaos in the middle east is likely. That’s what is lifting oil prices.

So if this cost of oil keeps growing, might we see further unrest, like we saw recently in Spain, where fuel costs drove to strikes, violence and deaths...The strikes left gas stations without fuel and supermarket shelves empty. If this happens on a wider scale, if a crisis like that in the 70's reoccurs, might that justify war in Iran, as a means to an end of the fuel crisis?

- Further calls for Iran attack

Today in UK's Telegraph Con Coughlin reports that:
Admiral Mike Mullen warns the West over military strike against Iran

There are two ways of interpreting this week's warning by America's top military officer, Admiral Mike Mullen, that opening a new front in the Middle East by launching air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities would be "extremely stressful".

Either the United States, with the help of its favoured Middle Eastern proxy, Israel, is already preparing to take out Iran's main nuclear facilities, and is simply preparing public opinion for the likely consequences of such action.

Or America's top brass, who already have their work cut out prosecuting two major military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, are trying to pre-empt any thoughts President George W. Bush, the nation's commander-in-chief, might have about ordering his armed forces into action against the mullahs.

But more worringly, in Israeli media, Haaretz, which today states:
U.S. admiral: Iran strike on Israel 'likely'

Iran is likely to launch ballistic missiles against Israel and the United States and the NATO alliance should prepare for it, was the warning issued earlier this week by Admiral James Winnefeld, commander of the Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean.

- Non violent and creative resistance against a world of more war

If this attack does happen, will Shannon airport play a major strategical part in the movement of troops to engage in this battlezone? If so, what will be the response of all elements oposed to these wars in Ireland? Have we learned anything since March 2003, if so what?

Raytheon 9 Non Violent Direct Action: a seminal turning point for Irish activism

The recent action by the Raytheon 9 in Derry to enter Raytheon's weapons guidance factory there and destroy property was acquitted in the court, this has been as a second huge success in the use of NVDA to attempt to destroy or make unworkable the tools of war, in this case the computer guidance systems that were used in Lebanon. This group was made up of SWP and Republican activists who previously didnt support much the tactic of NVDA, from what i understand anyway. But this very successfull action brought attention to the hypocrism of part of the "peace process" in its wish for jobs and cash regardless if they came on the backs of innocents killed. It also showed that these types of actions get results. A quick audio interview Ciaran O Reilly gave recently on Hungarian radio, sums up this very well. (see link below)

The first major recent anti war NVDA success was Ciaran and his fellow NVDA activists, action in Shannon airport which again won in the courts, but unfortunately did not spark a wider amount of actions. Having been pulled through the courts with all its stresss and strains, as well as keeping on fighting while others dont or cant, you can understand Ciarons frustrations on the 5 year anniversary of F15, after which he wrote:

What is Relevant Anti-War Activity 5 Years In?

I believe if 1% of those who marched against this war in 03 had gone into nonviolent resistance in the spirit of Ghandi and King to the point of imprisonment and the other 99% commited to proactive solidarity with the resistance (help feed the cat, pay the rent, deal with the hysterical parents, spread the word) we would now have a vibrant anti-war culture and movement and not be reduced to these biannual holy daze of obligation marches and the government would have a lot of trouble prosecuting this war.

So the question is, now after the Raytheon 9's action, what has been the response from SWP, Republicans and other "Irish anti war movement" groups after the acquittal? Is there any more recognition for NVDA, is there a willingless to move away from the old "tried and trusted" forms of resistance, ie, another F15 ???

These are questions I hope get asked in the anti war world in Ireland. The last time I was home I did just that, rather than bickering and slating other groups with different agendas, I went to an "IAWM" talk to get a bit of an update of their take on things, but also to offer a view perhaps that would not have been offered otherwise; that of NVDA, in fact I read out a short part of Ciaran's article in reference to NVDA and what he saw or sees as their continued lack of discussion about these strategies and lack of support even for some of their own SWP NVDA activists....

A similar "dialogue" to this happened after Bush's visit to Ireland in 2004, where at the IAWM AGM was held days after and the internal left / anti war bickering came up again which led to the outburst: "We're all here to stop this Fucking war".

Perhaps these internal conficts, and more importanty how to get over them and build up a strong(er) resistance to war was talked at the last Grassroots Gathering? There was a satirical piece written prior to this gathering, but perhaps it indeed spoke many truths. Eitherway there has been little feedback from that gathering, for those unable to get there, but perhaps, hopefully, much critical self analysis did happen, which is better kept with those that participated.

If war does break out in Iran, I really do think that Europe could flare up, if it breaks out in a time already in crisis due to fuel shortage and recession, perhaps people will not be as stand offish as they were last time. Im not too sure of all the EU workings and wraglings about the Lisbon treaty and what Sarkozy desires are, but it would be very ironic to see that spirit of '68 to erupt again, especially as the man in charge feels he is the final "nail in the coffin of '68".

Who knows, but whatever the future, the one sure thing is that these days are getting ever more worrying in this the craziest age of all, the "oil age".

- Soultion to oil dependance: sustainable living C2C, cradle to cradle design

All this oil dependance, which includes the need for more oil wars, comes from our unsustainable way of working the world at present. Most of us agree that we now have a "climate crisis" but there is also HOPE that we can get ourselves out of this, I wrote about what are those alternatives in "Adapt or Die", see below for link. Most of that is to do with the C2C (cradle to cradle" concept of sustainable development being successfully expanded on from the early days of writing the Hanover principles to now creating 12 eco cities in China: US architect and designer Bill Mc Donough, watch his Youtube vid and be amazed.

Regards from Barcelona

Dunk

links:

$250 forecast as oil hits a new peak
http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/0703/oil.html

As Oil Hits Another Record High, A Look at the New Geopolitics of Energy
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/6/27/as_oil_hits_anoth..._high

Truckers' Fuel-Cost Protests Turn Violent in Spain (audio - 4 mins)
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=91...15108

90,000 Spanish truckers strike over soaring fuel prices
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/06/09/spain-fuel.html

Admiral Mike Mullen warns the West over military strike against Iran
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opin...5.xml

Haaretz: U.S. admiral: Iran strike on Israel 'likely'
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/998839.html

Threats of war in Iran updates
http://antiwar.com/

Plowshares activist Ciaron O'Reilly Interviewed on Raytheon 9 action & trial
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/88221

Response of Raytheon 9 to their acquittal
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/87945

Raytheon 9
http://www.raytheon9.org/home.html

Not Guilty. The Pitstop Ploughshares All Acquitted on All Charges
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/77460/

Pitstop Ploughshares site
http://warontrial.com/

Anti-War Meeting 7:30 PM Royal Dublin Hotel, O'Connell St. Dublin
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/86173

Indymedia criticised at IAWM conference
http://www.indymedia.ie/newswire.php?story_id=65858

Report back from Grassroots Gathering held over June Bank holiday weekend, Dublin.
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/88066

the satirical piece: Provisional Lineup for Grassroots Gathering 2008 (Friday & Saturday)
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/87534

Adapt Or Die
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/87770

William McDonough: The wisdom of designing Cradle to Cradle
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoRjz8iTVoo

"Hero of the planet" Bill Mc Donough, his ideas and how and to where they are spreading...buildings as trees, cities as forests
http://easa.antville.org/stories/1772124/

Very Interesting and informed discussion of this issue at this link

by >>>

Wed Jul 02, 2008 23:22

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4237#comments_top

There's also the fact....

by auntiewar

Wed Jul 02, 2008 18:48

That if bush plunges the US into another war just before handing over to the democrats, he will totally fuck up any chance the will have of doing anything except desperate fire fighting while they are in office. The ultimate poison chalice. Can republicans really be that petty and have such utter disregard for human suffering?? Do bears shit in the woods??

art in a time of war: Neil Young: "Let's Impeach The President"

Wed Jul 02, 2008 17:42

It is interesting to see how artists, including musicians, have reacted to the initial shock of 911 and the subsequent brutality of the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Directly after the initial attack on Iraq, folk rock artist (and one time stand in pogue..) Steve Earle was driven to question democracy and work for "revolution", all be it in a somewhat tame sense, but his anger drove him to release an album in May 2004 with the fine title tune; The Revolution Starts Now:

Yeah the revolution starts now
In your own backyard
In your own hometown
So what you doin’ standin’ around?
Just follow your heart
The revolution starts now

The sleeve notes have interesting commentry about the origins of the US constitution:

The Constitution of The United States of America is a REVOLUTIONARY document in every sense of the word. It was designed to evolve, to live, and to breathe like the people that it governs. It is, ingeniously, and perhaps conversely, resilient enough to change with the times in order to meet the challenges of its third century and rigid enough to preserve the ideals that inspired its original articles and amendments. As long as we are willing to put in the work required to defend and nurture this remarkable invention of our forefathers, then I believe with all my heart that it will continue to thrive for generations to come. Without our active participation, however, the future is far from certain. For without the lifeblood of the human spirit even the greatest documents produced by humankind are only words on paper or parchment, destined to yellow and crack and eventually crumble to dust.

Yours for the motherfuckin’ revolution,

Recently, Canadian born folk rock legend Neil Young, who has been living in the US since early 60's, released a very spirited album "Living with War" , which is a 2006 Grammy and Juno Award-nominated studio album. The album's lyrics, titles, and conceptual style are highly critical of the policies of the George W. Bush administration, and some have called it a "musical critique" of Bush and the War in Iraq. It was written and recorded over the course of only nine days in March and April 2006.

His main track is a bold call, like many other sections of civil society: "Let's Impeach The President"

Not content to simply release the album, he and his team created a website and blog "Living with War", from which he made the tune freely downloadable pre release amongst a few other tricks. His goal, which has always been his goal as an artist, is simply to communicate....

"Let's Impeach The President"

Let's impeach the president for lying

And leading our country into war

Abusing all the power that we gave him

And shipping all our money out the door

He's the man who hired all the criminals

The White House shadows who hide behind closed doors

And bend the facts to fit with their new stories

Of why we have to send our men to war

Let's impeach the president for spying

On citizens inside their own homes

Breaking every law in the country

By tapping our computers and telephones...

Below is an interview Neil Young gave to CNN outlining his purpose.

I hope this helps in the sense of how creativity can be used to fight for change.

Dunk

Steve Earle

The Revolution Starts Now (Live at Montreux 2005)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dE1H3uo_s1w

Steve Earle website with sleeve notes and lyrics
http://www.steveearle.net/discography/revolution.php

Neil Young:

Neil Young: Let's Impeach The President
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4kTnP5VJ1k

Lyrics to Neil Young's Let's Impeach the President
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2006/04/27/820/38747

Neil Young interview on CNN - April 18th 2006
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7utryGZ25dg

Living with war
neil youngs website, part of his communication tool network for his objective to “lets impeach the president”
http://www.neilyoung.com/lwwtoday/index.html

Living_with_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Living_with_War

Steve Earle : The Revolution Starts Now

Neil Young : Living with War

Congress funds 400 mil in covert spy ops against Iran-1/2

Wed Jul 02, 2008 17:05

from democracy now, c/o YOUTUBE:

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Israel, US & UK Beat The Drums Of War As They Threaten Iran