Gaza: How will this crisis play itself out?

international | anti-war / imperialism | opinion/analysis Wednesday December 31, 2008 19:04 by Moshe

What is Israel and Hamas likely to do over the next few days?

Hamas may well fold and stop its rocket attacks however Israel may be forced to resort to a ground attack if Hamas continues to attack Israeli civilians.

Any ground offensive will involve Israeli armoured forces - Merkava tanks and armoured Israeli infantry supported by heavy artillery, helicopter gunships and fighter aircraft and navy destroyers in the Mediterranean.

The initial Israeli thrusts are likely to seize the northern Gaza strip thereby limiting the range of Hamas rockets and the Gaza strip along the Egyptian border where tunnels have brought in weapons and supplies for Hamas.

Hamas will then find itself isolated in the urban areas.

Attacks into urban areas will be accompanied by armoured bulldozers which will smash through barricades and push through the narrow streets and alleys ahead of the tanks and infantry vehicles. Aerial support and artillery from sea and land will reduce enemy strongpoints which will then be engaged at closer range by the tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Dismounted troops will sweep through the buildings with grenades and small arms mopping up any remaining Hamas fighters still holding out.

Civilians will be instructed to remain indoors by megaphones mounted on helicopters and Israeli vehicles during the fighting and will be escorted to safety by Israeli troops as areas are cleared of Hamas fighters. Israeli field hospitals will be set up to take care of the wounded.

Most of the Gaza Strip will be secured in the first few days while a few pockets are sure to put up fierce resistance for longer but these pockets will be isolated by Israeli cordons and reduced at leisure using superior firepower.

Casualities among Israeli troops will be high in terms of both dead and wounded and several tanks and armoured vehicles are sure to be lost in close range urban fighting.

Hamas fighters armed with automatic weapons and rocket propelled grenades are likely to be decimated especially as in desperation they will chose suicide or fighting to the death over surrender. They are likely to have fortified much of the Gaza strip in anticipation of an Israeli assault so resistance is likely to be a classic block by block, street by street, house by house and room by room affair that will take time but the outcome will not be in doubt.

There is likely to be massive destruction of buildings and many urban areas will no doubt be reduced to rubble.

Inevitably there may be catastrophic loss of life among Palestinian civilians - after all Gaza is densely populated. Israeli forces will try to reduce the numbers of dead and wounded as much as possible but the priority will be eliminating Hamas fighters many of whom will no doubt wear civilian clothes, use Palestinian civilians as shields and some will throw away their weapons to cowardly masquerade as civilian refugees in order to try and escape over the Egyptian border where Israeli blocking forces will be waiting for them.

The success of the American assault on Fallujah which routed Iraqi insurgents and Al-Qaeda fighters in November 2004 is likely to have been studied closely by Israeli military planners in preparation.

Hamas know what is coming. Whether they chose martyrdom or see reason and stop attacking Israel is anyone's guess.

Hopefully they will chose the more reasonable approach

- but don't count on it.