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Gaza: How will this crisis play itself out?

category international | anti-war / imperialism | opinion/analysis author Wednesday December 31, 2008 19:04author by Moshe Report this post to the editors

What is Israel and Hamas likely to do over the next few days?

Hamas may well fold and stop its rocket attacks however Israel may be forced to resort to a ground attack if Hamas continues to attack Israeli civilians.

Any ground offensive will involve Israeli armoured forces - Merkava tanks and armoured Israeli infantry supported by heavy artillery, helicopter gunships and fighter aircraft and navy destroyers in the Mediterranean.

The initial Israeli thrusts are likely to seize the northern Gaza strip thereby limiting the range of Hamas rockets and the Gaza strip along the Egyptian border where tunnels have brought in weapons and supplies for Hamas.

Hamas will then find itself isolated in the urban areas.

Attacks into urban areas will be accompanied by armoured bulldozers which will smash through barricades and push through the narrow streets and alleys ahead of the tanks and infantry vehicles. Aerial support and artillery from sea and land will reduce enemy strongpoints which will then be engaged at closer range by the tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Dismounted troops will sweep through the buildings with grenades and small arms mopping up any remaining Hamas fighters still holding out.

Civilians will be instructed to remain indoors by megaphones mounted on helicopters and Israeli vehicles during the fighting and will be escorted to safety by Israeli troops as areas are cleared of Hamas fighters. Israeli field hospitals will be set up to take care of the wounded.

Most of the Gaza Strip will be secured in the first few days while a few pockets are sure to put up fierce resistance for longer but these pockets will be isolated by Israeli cordons and reduced at leisure using superior firepower.

Casualities among Israeli troops will be high in terms of both dead and wounded and several tanks and armoured vehicles are sure to be lost in close range urban fighting.

Hamas fighters armed with automatic weapons and rocket propelled grenades are likely to be decimated especially as in desperation they will chose suicide or fighting to the death over surrender. They are likely to have fortified much of the Gaza strip in anticipation of an Israeli assault so resistance is likely to be a classic block by block, street by street, house by house and room by room affair that will take time but the outcome will not be in doubt.

There is likely to be massive destruction of buildings and many urban areas will no doubt be reduced to rubble.

Inevitably there may be catastrophic loss of life among Palestinian civilians - after all Gaza is densely populated. Israeli forces will try to reduce the numbers of dead and wounded as much as possible but the priority will be eliminating Hamas fighters many of whom will no doubt wear civilian clothes, use Palestinian civilians as shields and some will throw away their weapons to cowardly masquerade as civilian refugees in order to try and escape over the Egyptian border where Israeli blocking forces will be waiting for them.

The success of the American assault on Fallujah which routed Iraqi insurgents and Al-Qaeda fighters in November 2004 is likely to have been studied closely by Israeli military planners in preparation.

Hamas know what is coming. Whether they chose martyrdom or see reason and stop attacking Israel is anyone's guess.

Hopefully they will chose the more reasonable approach

- but don't count on it.

author by jimbopublication date Wed Dec 31, 2008 22:51author address author phone Report this post to the editors

And after all that palestinians will still be a people brutally oppressed by Israel. the result will be more violence and the continuation of destruction and death. At some point in the future the people of palestine and Israel will have to live together in peace and that will require and end to the apartheid Israeli state and the integration of both peoples into some sort of secular entity where all are equal. No gods no masters, no wars no states

author by Davepublication date Thu Jan 01, 2009 05:08author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Too True Jimbo,

But unfortunately our deluded protagonist, Moshe, has gotten one thing right,

True peace in Palestine will also have to be distributed in the same manner as Moshe hopes to see the death and savagery of Israel doled out - Person to person, house to house, street to street etc.

In the meantime Israel will be knee deep in the neighbour's blood.

author by Moshepublication date Thu Jan 01, 2009 10:53author address author phone Report this post to the editors

But Hamas must be eliminated first.
The people of Gaza are a society that is utterly and hopelessly absorbed in an apocalyptic Islamic fundamentalist death cult and Hamas are only a symptom.
The obvious solution is a de-Hamasification much like the de-Nazification that was so effective in post-war Nazi Germany.
Gaza can be rebuilt as a modern secular democracy and there is no reason in the world why Palestinians cannot enjoy the same political and economic stability as Israel with multi-party elections.
Firstly of course Hamas and its infrastrure must be dealt with.

author by ecpublication date Thu Jan 01, 2009 16:11author address author phone Report this post to the editors

That to me is very scary.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/30/2456334.htm

The United Nations says 320 people have been killed in Gaza, including 62 women and children, and around 1,400 injured.

"[The 62 figure] does not include civilian casualties who are men, even though we know that there have been some civilian men killed as well," UN humanitarian affairs co-ordinator John Holmes said.

author by Bazooka Joepublication date Thu Jan 01, 2009 21:54author address author phone Report this post to the editors

The war without morals which Israel is waging on the people of Gaza is a contuining war crime in which all who support Israel are complicit.

If the Zionists dare to launch a ground invasion it will go very badly for them and they should remember their defeat in Lebanon in 2006. The entire population of Gaza will embrace the Resistance and deny Israel it's stated objectives of diabling the rocket attacks and replacing Hamas with the quisling Fatah.

author by Seanopublication date Fri Jan 02, 2009 03:04author address author phone Report this post to the editors

The Israeli war effort also involves heavy bombardment of the media: the front page of today's guardian online has details of this;

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/02/israel-pale...-spin

author by Andypublication date Fri Jan 02, 2009 03:13author address author phone Report this post to the editors

True peace in Palestine will also have to be distributed in the same manner as Moshe hopes to see the death and savagery of Israel doled out - Person to person, house to house, street to street etc.

But Hamas do not want peace look at there charter

[Peace] initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement. For renouncing any part of Palestine means renouncing part of the religion; the nationalism of the Islamic Resistance Movement is part of its faith, the movement educates its members to adhere to its principles and to raise the banner of Allah over their homeland as they fight their Jihad

http://www.palestinecenter.org/cpap/documents/charter.html

Until the people of palestine realsie Hamas are there to send them to "martyerdom" they must stop supporting them and those Palestinian terror supporters overseas are supporting a group who are leading palestinians to death for there own sick cause.

author by Moshepublication date Fri Jan 02, 2009 09:47author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Israel is fighting for its existence.
The thousands of Israeli soldiers who are preparing to fight are doing so knowing that their families and their homes in Israel are in stake.
Hundreds of them may well die.
They are quite prepared to do so.

Hamas must be destroyed and will be destroyed.

author by Justin Morahanpublication date Fri Jan 02, 2009 15:25author address author phone Report this post to the editors

The outcome of the war is all that matters to you maybe.

But to me it matters that there is a war in the first place.

Hamas must be destroyed, you say, but Israel supported Hamas against the PLO, helped to create Hamas and now wants to destroy it.

By murder and mayhem in Gaza

author by Moshepublication date Sat Jan 03, 2009 13:23author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Israeli Prime minister Ehud Olmert said "Netanyahu established Hamas, gave it life, freed Sheikh Yassin and gave him the opportunity to blossom"

Now Olmert is trying to destroy this organisation.
Netanyahu is also committed to destroying Hamas too.

The Soviet backed PLO was a bigger threat than the Islamists during the earlier period of the Arab-Israeli conflict and it was logical at that time for Israel to support Hamas as a counterbalance to the Arafat terrorist movement.

This strategy backfired, in the same way that that the pullout from Gaza gifted the area to the Islamists.

The Americans made a similar mistake when they backed the globalist Islamist movement during the struggle to remove Soviet invaders from Afghanistan and Soviet manufactured Egyptian, Jordanian and Syrian arms that were captured during the 1967 and 1973 wars were shipped to the mijihadeen in Afghanistan.

Israel made a severe mistake by backing Hamas and now that Hamas is attacking Israeli civilians and is control of Gaza then Israel has no alternative but to kill this Frankenstein monster.

On one hand you blame Israel for creating Hamas but when Israel tries to remedy that mistake you condemn Israel?

I heard this type of argument before when America was blamed for creating the Saddam regime in Iraq but when they finally got their act together and got rid of his odious regime the Americans were condemned.

It seems that the anti-war movement wants it both ways.

They want to cheer on Hamas and scream at Israel for reacting to attacks on its citizens and then claims to be in favour of peace?

author by Vincentpublication date Sat Jan 03, 2009 19:42author address author phone Report this post to the editors

An overview of a very strange and horrible twilight world is emerging in Israel regarding what exactly Israel is supposed to be.
So far there are approaching 500 dead and 2500 injured by their violent actions in Gaza, of which at least 400 are critical. The critically injured are in grave danger of losing their lives in hospitals where there are no drugs, equipment, or enough staff to cope with the carnage. The Israeli foreign Minister, Livni, says there is no Humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Olmert simultaneously has set out its aims at liberating the Gaza people from the enemy Hamas. "You, the citizens of Gaza are not our enemies,” he said. “Hamas, Jihad and the other terrorist organisations are your enemies as they are our enemies. They brought disaster on you and they try to bring disaster to the people of Israel."
Two marches today went ahead in Tel Aviv. One march supporting the bombardment of Gaza the other opposing it.
Likud Knesset Member Gilad Erden, who was also present at the pro-bombardment rally said "the High Court of Justice was wrong when, in the midst of a war, it permitted the waving of an enemy flag in the centre of the country." The flag, of course, was a Palestinian flag not a Hamas flag. Israelis call it the PA Flag. The PA is their friends and collaborators in these events. Olmert said Hamas are the enemy and the Gaza people aren’t ?
Likud Knesset Member Gilad Erden also said :"The hundreds of people that arrived at the counter-protest prove that the sane majority supports the obliteration of Hamas in Gaza”. According to this the people seeking a stoppage of the attack are by deduction “insane”.

Meanwhile in the last few hours in preparation for the ground offensive, which has just commenced, Israel had increased it’s battery by implementing the use of Artillery pieces which YNET reports as : “The IDF said that by Saturday evening hundreds of shells had been fired at precise targets in Gaza.” Precise Targets ?
In the same article about 5 lines down it goes on to say : “ Later, Palestinian sources reported that at least 10 people were killed and dozens injured in a blast in a Beit Lahiya mosque in the northern Gaza Strip. “ It is believed children are among the dead.
Precise Targets.
YNET also reports that Air Force aircraft continued to drop leaflets in Gaza, calling on residents to leave their homes in order to avoid injury. The leaflets dropped Saturday read: "Area resident, as result of the acts undertaken by terror activists in your area against Israel, the IDF is forced to respond immediately and operate in this area. For your own safety, you are asked to leave the area immediately."
In the midst of an artillery barrage , an Arial bombardment and a ground invasion they are telling the Palestinians to leave their homes and take to the streets.

It is clear that a fog of hatred and violence has descended on Israel and that no logic or moral considerations will prevail until the fog has dissipated. What price are the Gazans ultimately going to pay in this fog of horror that has covered them over like a dark plague?

author by Reporter12publication date Sat Jan 03, 2009 21:48author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Europe backs IDF incursion

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3649818,00.html

“ European Union president, the Czech Republic, said on Saturday an Israeli ground incursion in Gaza was "defensive, not offensive" action. “

There we have it. We didnt know it but we back the Israeli ground invasion of Gaza apparently.

In a slick move that would make even Houdini squirm, the compliant Czech Republic has managed to slip its head into the ass of the US / Israel Axis simultaneously as the Sarkozy-Kouchner French cabal slipped their head out. The result is a seamless salute from our “European President” for the escalating bloodshed.

It seems clear from this style of servile acceptance of US Israeli Facism that when Lisbon is passed we will have our names volunteered to endorse the most extraordinary outrages.

Hurray for Lisbon !

author by Reporter12publication date Sat Jan 03, 2009 22:28author address author phone Report this post to the editors

In further good news for Israeli politicians of the centrist Kadima/Labour mutation the bombardment of Gaza is starting to pay off in votes. Kadima / Labour which was losing ground to the extreme right wing parties only weeks ago, due to it's never-ending empty threats of a major offensive and a ground invasion on Gaza, has turned the tide in their favour with their new election campaign stunt in Gaza.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/pol....html

--- Ms Keren, like many Israelis, has spent time in the services – in her case two years in the air force. She also considers herself progressive and the way she votes in the coming general election has been influenced by events in Gaza. "I was going to vote for one of the left-of-centre parties, but I have now made up my mind I'll go for Kadima because it has taken action in Gaza." ---

---Polls also showed rising support for centrist parties, with significant jumps in the approval ratings for the Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, outgoing premier Ehud Olmert and Defence Minister Ehud Barak. However, the right-wing Likud, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, still remains in the lead. ---

The trick now will be to keep up the bloodshed in Gaza, at the brisk pace that such progressive Israeli's approve of, without getting too many of their own people killed. If they can do that up to the election day and suppress retaliatory rocket fire by killing anything that moves then they could be victorious.

This is great news for Gazans as before Kadima/ Labour kicked off their election campaign in Gaza they were almost sure that the next government in Israel would be a vicious right wing colaition of racists and supremicists with a sprinkling of Judeo-Fundamentalist on top.

author by Repoter12publication date Sun Jan 04, 2009 23:06author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Free Gaza Org. hosts report of atrocities carried out in detailed list, from reporter Sameh A Habeeb in Gaza who provides contact details to reach him there for Press Updates.

http://www.freegaza.org/uploads/2008/day_9_of_israeli_w..._.pdf

author by Vincentpublication date Mon Jan 05, 2009 13:01author address author phone Report this post to the editors

In the darkest of times comes the very darkest of humour.

Electronic Intafada transcribes the conversation held between its reporter and a member of the Israeli Army on their special colaborators hotline.

It's priceless :

http://electronicintifada.net/v2/article10114.shtml

-Israeli officer: Wait a minute, one at a time ...

EI: No write it down, I don't have time. The third one is called Ehud Olmert [Israeli prime minister].

- Israeli officer: Look, just a minute ...

EI: You think that terrorists are only men? There are also women. Terrorist organizations have women too. The fourth is Tzipi Livni [Israeli foreign minister].

- Israeli officer: First, I see that you're very clever and very experienced and you should ...

EI: And then the fifth's name is Yuval Diskin [head of Israel's "Shin Bet" death squads]. Write it down and record it my beloved. These are the names of the biggest terrorist leaders in the whole of Palestine and in the whole of the Middle East.

- Israeli officer: You know what I think? I think you're not from the Strip.

EI: Aaaah. You think I'm not from the strip? But you take information on terrorists from any place right?

- Israeli officer: Now you're not benefiting at all. You're not helping yourself and you're not helping anyone else. If you were really from the Strip ...

EI: Didn't I just tell you that there were a number of terrorists in the strip? Record it. There's a group of terrorists. They're the biggest terrorists in the world. They call themselves the "Israeli Defense Force" but they're not defending anyone. They're a terrorist gang.

author by CWIpublication date Mon Jan 05, 2009 14:03author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Protests in Israel against Gaza onslaught

Tel-Aviv: Around 10,000 Jews and Arabs in a militant protest against the war

Report from Socialist Struggle Movement
(Tnu`at Maavak Sotzyalisti/Harakat Nidal Eshteraki – CWI in Israel)

http://www.socialistworld.net/eng/2009/01/0501.html

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